SYRPER EXCLUSIVE: WHAT LAVROV IS TELLING MU’ALLEM; WHAT MU’ALLEM IS TELLING PUTIN AND LAVROV
The Foreign Minister and Minister for Expatriates of the Syrian Arab Republic, Mr. Waleed Al-Mu’allim, is in Sochi to meet with Russian President, Vladimir Putin, and Russian F.M., Sergei Lavrov. The meeting is face-to-face which required the Syrian top diplomat to fly to Russia. You can assume that the reasons for the trip have to do with secrecy, confidential exchanges of information and the need to prevent Western eavesdropping. This meeting could be the most important of the entire war in Syria.
Pay no attention to press conferences or summaries offered up by both sides to the talks at the end. This meeting is not about publicity or orotund denunciations of terrorism. Both countries have staked out clear positions on ISIS, American meddling and the incessant violations of international law by the West, its troglodyte Arabian allies, and the Zionist Apartheid State.
Russia remains mildly interested in a negotiated end to the fighting in Syria which will see Dr. Assad continue his stewardship for at least another 7 years but which might involve a reconfiguration of the Syrian governmental structure so as to accommodate new elements from the expatriate opposition. The Russians have to know with whom Damascus would negotiate and whom Damascus fiercely rejects. Neither the Syrians nor the Russians will brook any surprises.
The Syrian FM is there to give them a list of groups and personalities Damascus finds acceptable in order to have a realistic political framework in which to negotiate. My readers already appear to sense that Ahmad Mu’aadh Al-Khateeb (Al-Hasani), a former head of NACOSROF, will be on the short list especially in light of recent pronouncements he has made in support of the Assad Administration and its fight against terrorism. Al-Khateeb is important because of his religious affiliations; he hails from a wealthy clerical Damascene class whose Sunni credentials are impeccable and deeply rooted in the life of the capital.
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There is also a hope that Dr. Haytham Al-Mannaa’ will see his way to resolving his irrational differences with the Assad government and, at the very least, endorse the talks. His track record in condemning the use of violence and in criticizing the Saudis/Qataris has been quite laudable. His prestige rooted in pacifistic principles will gain him much gravity if the talks are ever held with him contributing. That he is a successful physician practicing in France is another plus since his personal financial situation has obviated the necessity of falling into the gilded cage of crude Wahhabist briberies.
Michel Kilo is another Syrian dissident who will be on the list. Kilo is a Kolakovskian-style communist who has written editorials mostly critical of the Ba’ath Party while playing a never-ending cat-and-mouse game with our security services. In general, he is a non-violent advocate for change and has played a critical role in keeping the expatriate opposition a good whiff away from the reeking stench of the Muslim Brotherhood. He represents a secular and progressive Weltanschauung acceptable to the Ba’ath. More than that, I cannot say, since I am not at liberty to do so. One particularly awful affiliation of his which would militate against his inclusion is the fact that SyrPer Liar of the Year Nominee and British catamite, Raami ‘Abdul-Rahmaan of SOHR, counts himself a Kilo-watt, ahem, an admirer of Kilo.
Another might be Nizaar Nayyoof, an Alawite critic of his coreligionists’ political role in Syria, who would also be acceptable if his health allowed him to participate in intense and serious negotiations. Suhayr Al-Ataasi, of a landed Syrian-Turkish family from Homs, might also be an acceptable addition if you can get her away from an hairdresser for more than an hour.
Personalities like George Sabra, an avowed communist atheist, whom the Arabian apes thought would assuage the anxieties of minorities is absolutely unacceptable. His tirades against the government, his mercenary style, his praise of terroristic atrocities in Syria make him persona non grata. He will have to sit this one out in some squalid hotel in a hardscrabble quarter of Istanbul. Others who are unacceptable are the MB favorite, Ghassan Hitto; the bloated hog francophile, Burhaan “Le Pipe” Ghalyoon; Kamaal Labwaani (who promised the Zionists recognition and the whole Golan if they would help to unseat Dr. Assad); ‘Abdul-Baasit Seedaa (his sleep-inducing style of oratory is absolutely unacceptable); Haytham Al-Maalih who will face a death sentence if he ever sets foot in Syria. Al-Maalih actually described how he would torture the Assads if they ever fell into his old, ugly, wrinkled paws. Another reject is Ahmad Jarbaa, the former and present pimp, embezzler and extortionist who sleeps in Saudi beds with Eastern European boys.
Mr. Mu’allim is also in Russia to find out how things are playing out in the Ukraine and how that might impact on Russia’s posture on Syria. SyrPer has the opinion of an astute political analyst in Moscow who has asked that his name not be used in this article. While I shy away from such treatments of sources, I also have to acknowledge that both my sources in Syria, Wael and Monzer, are also using false monikers. So, let’s call my Muscovite source, Anatoly.
Anatoly says that Putin is going to make it clear to Mr. Mu’allim that Russia not only stands behind Dr. Assad’s government, but will view Syria, for the foreseeable future, as a state with a “mutual defense pact” binding it to Moscow. Anatoly also thinks that Russia does not share the Syrian state’s acquiescent, “wishy-washy” view of U.S. air attacks on ISIS. Russia does not believe the attacks are effective and, moreover, sees them as contributing to a western-inspired depiction of the government in Damascus as illegitimate. (Readers might note that some Syrian publications have hinted at a renewal of U.S.-Syrian diplomatic ties in the near future).
Moscow has tried in vain to coerce Washington into coordinating air strikes over Syria with Damascus. Failing that, Russia employed a slick ruse that would take the matter up at the U.N.S.C. where American violations of Syrian air space could be used to further embarrass the Obama regime internationally. With the Syrians balking at the idea – their view being that any strikes against ISIS can’t be all bad – the Russians feel they have no standing to raise the rebuke. That Dr. Al-Ja’afari has not railed against American trespasses is proof of the Russian position.
Russia wants the U.S. out of Syria unless joint action authorized by the U.N., in consultation with Damascus, is taken. Any resolution for such action has to be very language-precise to avoid the catastrophe of the Libyan Affair. SyrPer believes that a new diplomatic strategy is part of the agenda in Sochi. This is because the Russians have read correctly that a new Republican-dominated Congress in Washington will pressure the American president into greater adventurism in the Near and Middle East. With a valid Chapter 7 resolution on the table (which the West will veto) Russia will be prepared to participate militarily, a fact that will kibosh France’s ludicrous dream of a no-fly or buffer zone. Actually, the Russians are analyzing this very brilliantly. We only hope Damascus catches on.
SyrPer has learned that Russian companies are being given the priority in both exploration and drilling for natural gas off the coast of Syria in territorial waters. These agreements, which will be of immense importance to Moscow in the way it maneuvers economically around the limp-wristed sanctions promoted by Germany and France, lie at the heart of the profitable line of credit Moscow has extended to Damascus. Mr. Mu’allim has been reminded that the line of credit and the good will have yet to be exhausted.
With the Syrian Army verging on the liberation of all Aleppo City – an eventuality calculated to diminish Western machinations in the area – an eventuality seen as unacceptable by the Saudi vermin and the Turk sociopaths – Russia is consulting with Mr. Mua’llim about a renewed Western push to establish an Islamist rump state abutting Turkey which the West hopes to use as a bargaining chip against Dr. Assad – the same bargaining chip they are trying to create in Der’ah with much difficulty and failure. This rump state would figure favorably in France’s calculations for a security zone.
In order to deal with terrorist redeployments at the Turk border, with most frontier entryways in the hands of the terrorist allies of the U.S., Moscow is warning Damascus to expect an intensified American campaign targeting the Syrian Army as soon as Chuck Hagel is replaced by a more aggressive Defense Secretary more acceptable to the maniacal and blood-thirsty Republican war criminals in Congress. The Russians will tell Mr. Mua’llim that Russia will not object if the SAA deploys and uses its S-300 anti-aircraft missile defense system especially when the U.S. and Britain or France target the SAA in an effort to relieve pressure on their Jihadist/Takfeeri allies like Nusra or Harakat Hazm in both Aleppo and Idlib.
Syria knows it must listen carefully to what Putin says. With the Saudis and Qataris enjoying a new rapprochement after a failed Saudi-inspired coup e’etat in Doha and Saud Al-Faysal’s unproductive visit to Moscow, Mr. Putin is expecting a ramping up of pressure with greater investments by both culturally stagnant Arabian states in newly formed terrorist groups to be stationed in Turkey and Jordan. Putin has told Mr. Mua’llem that he can count on Russia to continue building up the Syrian army, providing diplomatic support with an air umbrella (if necessary) to block any NATO assault on Syria. Mr. Mua’llem could not expect any rosier confab.
The future of negotiations with the opposition appears to be distant and improbable. While Russia wants to pursue a resolution consistent with the U.N. Charter, Syria has told Mr. Lavrov that sources inside the opposition are indicating nobody has any stomach for more failed conferences and that many in the opposition are looking for a way back to Damascus. This means that Saudi Arabia has read the situation similarly based on its own stooges inside the enemy camp and that Riyadh sees no solution outside the scope of the battlefield.
This gets us now to the core of this essay. Russia and Syria, with Iran, of course, are going to embark on a more combative approach to the war in Syria. Expect more aggressive Russian moves at the U.N. in light of France’s volte-face on the contract for the Mistral helicopter carrier. Russia is aware of how unpopular Hollande is in France. All the French people need now is a crisis in the delivery of natural gas during winter time. Remember, alcohol reduces body temperature. The Russians, no novices when it comes to slurping vodka, know this very well.
Expect, also, action in the Arabian Peninsula. I believe Iran will be pulling out all the stops, especially, if the Saudis make the mistake of executing Al-Shaykh Nimr Al-Nimr, the Shi’i cleric who was tried in a Saudi security court and found guilty of fomenting anti-monarchical violence. Once Iran has made the decision in consultation with Russia and Syria (and Iraq), Saudi Arabia will get a taste of an insurgency which will spread from Bahrain to the Dhahraan oil fields all the way to Qatar. Arabian monkeys will get a taste of what anti-Wahhabists do with serrated bread knives.
You are watching the collapse of the Arabian oil and gas empire. We believe that Mr. Putin has told Mr. Mu’allem that a new multi-polar world order has no place for pre-Iron Age apes like the Saudis and the Qataris. We think Mr. Putin is going to start kicking them to the curb.
Source:Syrian Perspective Blog
Ziad Fadel has served as an attorney for 33 years and is the Editor in Chief of the popular blog Syrian Perspective
The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Oceania Saker.