Category Archives: Europe

The Peak Oil Paradox Revisited, by Raúl Ilargi Meijer

source: The Automatic Earth

M. King Hubbert
M. King Hubbert

It’s been a while since we posted an article by our friend Euan Mearns, who was active at The Oil Drum at the same time Nicole and I were. Is it really 11 years ago that started, and almost 9 since we left? You know the drill: we ‘departed’ because they didn’t want us to cover finance, which we said was the more immediate crisis, yada yada. Euan stayed on for longer, and the once unequalled Oil Drum is no more.

On one of our long tours, which were based around Nicole’s brilliant public speaking engagements, we went to see Euan in Scotland, he teaches at Aberdeen University. I think it was 2011?! An honor. Anyway, always a friend.

And there’s ono-one I can think of who’d be better at explaining the Peak Oil Paradox in today’s context. So here’s a good friend of the Automatic Earth, Euan Mearns:


Euan Mearns:
Back in the mid-noughties the peak oil meme gained significant traction in part due to The Oil Drum blog where I played a prominent role. Sharply rising oil price, OPEC spare capacity falling below 2 Mbpd and the decline of the North Sea were definite signs of scarcity and many believed that peak oil was at hand and the world as we knew it was about to end. Forecasts of oil production crashing in the coming months were ten a penny. And yet between 2008, when the oil price peaked, and 2015, global crude+condensate+NGL (C+C+NGL) production has risen by 8.85 Mbpd to 91.67 Mbpd. That is by over 10%. Peak oilers need to admit they were wrong then. Or were they?

Introduction

It is useful to begin with a look at what peak oil was all about. This definition from Wikipediais as good as any:

Peak oil, an event based on M. King Hubbert’s theory, is the point in time when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum is reached, after which it is expected to enter terminal decline. Peak oil theory is based on the observed rise, peak, fall, and depletion of aggregate production rate in oilfields over time.

Those who engaged in the debate can be divided into two broad classes of individual: 1) those who wanted to try and understand oil resources, reserves, production and depletion rates based on a myriad of data sets and analysis techniques with a view to predicting when peak oil may occur and 2) those who speculated about the consequences of peak oil upon society. Such speculation normally warned of dire consequences of a world running short of transport fuel and affordable energy leading to resource wars and general mayhem. And none of this ever came to pass unless we want to link mayhem in Iraq*, Syria, Yemen, Sudan and Nigeria to high food prices and hence peak oil. In which case we may also want to link the European migrant crisis and Brexit to the same.

[* One needs to recall that GWI was precipitated over Kuwait stealing oil from Iraq, from a shared field on the Kuwait-Iraq border, leading to the Iraqi invasion of 1991.]

The peak oil debate on The Oil Drum was a lightning conductor for doomers of every flavour – peak oil doom (broadened to resource depletion doom), economic doom and environmental doom being the three main courses on the menu. The discussion was eventually hijacked by Greens and Green thinkers, who, not content with waiting for doomsday to happen, set about manufacturing arguments and data to hasten the day. For example, fossil fuel scarcity has morphed into stranded fossil fuel reserves that cannot be burned because of the CO2 produced, accompanied by recommendations to divest fossil fuel companies from public portfolios. Somewhat surprisingly, these ideas have gained traction in The United Nations, The European Union and Academia.

It is not my intention to dig too deeply into the past. Firmly belonging to the group of data analysts, in this post I want to take a look at two different data sets to explore where peak oil stands today. Is it dead and buried forever, or is it lurking in the shadows, waiting to derail the global economy again?

The USA and Hubbert’s Peak

The USA once was the poster child of peak oil. The Peak Oil theory was first formulated there by M. King Hubbert who in 1956 famously forecast that US production would peak around 1970 and thereafter enter an era of never-ending decline (Figure 1). Hubbert’s original paper is well worth a read.

hubbert1956

Figure 1 From Hubbert’s 1956 paper shows the peak and fall in US production for ultimate recovery of 150 and 200 billion barrels. The 200 billion barrel model shows a peak of 8.2 Mbpd around 1970 that proved to be uncannily accurate.

Continue reading The Peak Oil Paradox Revisited, by Raúl Ilargi Meijer

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Conversation: Is Turkey Finally Being Thrown Under The Buss?, By Eva Bartlett

Originally Published at: In Gaza

Original Title:

“THE STORY IS OVER, THE GAME IS OVER”: SYRIA’S AMBASSADOR AL-JA’AFARI ON TURKEY, SAUDI, QATARI, ‘ISRAELI’, NATO WAR ON SYRIA

bashar-al-jaafari

*Syrian Ambassador to the United Nations, Dr. Bashar al-Ja’afari (image from Syrianews.cc)

Below is a very interesting recent series of statements, followed by Q&A with Syria’s Ambassador to the UN, Dr. Bashar al-Ja’afari on turkey’s latest criminal aggression against Syria, as well as turkey’s history of violating Syria’s sovereignty and abetting, funneling terrorists into Syria.

*I typed out some choice remarks by Dr. al-Ja’afari*

“Nowadays everybody knows what’s going on in Syria. The turkish government is responsible of dealing, trading with ISIL. Buying oil, gas, and artifacts from ISIL. Facilitating the movement of this illegal, illegitimate trade of artifacts and gas and oil through turkish territory into some european capitals and ‘israel’.

So the story is over, the game is over. The turkish wrong and irresponsible policies are very well known to everybody. It’s time to put the turkish rulers at the seat of confession in front of the Security Council.”

*

“The whole war against is a war crime and a war against humanity. The economic boycott–taking the form of unilateral economic coercive measures for 5 years. Blockade. All kinds of boycott has been implemented by these aggressive countries towards my government–by the way, they are the same countries supporting the armed groups, the terrorist groups, operating in Syria and Iraq.

Definitely we have credible information that the so-called US led alliance struck the hospital in the northern part of Syria, but as usual the easiest way for them is to trigger a hostile campaign against the Syrian government–within the media–to accuse and defame the Syrian government, or our allies the Russians, of doing so and being behind such criminal act against a hospital.”

*

“Which ‘opposition’? We have 1000 ‘oppositions’.”

Continue reading Conversation: Is Turkey Finally Being Thrown Under The Buss?, By Eva Bartlett

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Disruptive ideas from the ether abound, Max Keiser leads the way!

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Oceania Saker.

 

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60 Hi-Profile German Leaders Sign Petition Condemning Merkel’s Russia Policy

Source: Russia Insider

Apologies for the funny translation, we just ran this German article from Die Zeit through GoogleTranslate, but you get the idea.  

This is not a minor thing, and a sign that Merkel is in big trouble.

The list is chock-a-block of heavy hitters and contains former top politicians, (mayors of Berlin and Hamburg, chancellor, president, head of top party, minister of defense, prime ministers of Germany’s 16 Bundeslander (like states), ambassador to Russia), top religious leaders, famous actors, scientists, business leaders, and prominent journalists.

If Merkel is known for anything, it is that she doesn’t stand for anything, believe in anything, and this flexibility and pragmatism has kept her at the top of the heap for ages now.

We bet she will roll with the new reality in Germany and soften her line on Russia.  Either that or she will get booted out.  Just watch.


Over 60 personalities from politics, economy, culture and media warn forcefully in an appeal against a war with Russia and calling for a new policy of détente in Europe.

Their call they make to the federal government, members of parliament and the media.

Initiated the call by former Chancellor advisor Horst Teltschik (CDU), former defense secretary of state Walther Stützle (SPD) and former Vice-President of the Bundestag Antje Vollmer (Green). ” We are talking about a political signal that the justified criticism of the Russian Ukraine’s policy does not mean that the progress we have achieved over the past 25 years in relations with Russia will be terminated, “Teltschik says the motivation for the appeal.

Have signed the text, inter alia, the former leaders of Hamburg, Berlin and Brandenburg, Klaus von Dohnanyi, Eberhard Diepgen and Manfred Stolpe, former SPD chairman Hans-Jochen Vogel, former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, former German President Roman Herzog and actor Mario Adorf.

The call in the wording:

Another war in Europe? Not in our name!

No one wants war. But North America, the European Union and Russia inevitably drive up to him if they did not finally halt the disastrous spiral of threat and counter-threat stop. All Europeans, including Russia, have joint responsibility for peace and security. Only he who does not lose sight of this goal, avoiding wrong turns.

The Ukraine-conflict shows that the addiction to power and domination is not overcome. 1990 at the end of the Cold War, we were all hoping. But the success of the policy of detente and peaceful revolutions have made sleepy and careless. In East and West alike. When Americans, Europeans and Russians is the guiding principle to banish war from their relationship permanently lost. It is a different Russia menacing expansion of the West to the East without simultaneous deepening cooperation with Moscow, as well as the illegal annexation of the Crimea by Putin, not to explain.

Display

In this moment of great danger for the continent Germany has a special responsibility for the preservation of peace. Without the reconciliation of the people of Russia, without the foresight of Mikhail Gorbachev, without the support of our Western allies and without the prudent action by the then Federal Government, the division of Europe had not been overcome. To allow the German unit peacefully, was a tall, shaped by reason gesture of the victorious powers. A decision of historic proportions. From overcome division a solid European peace and security from Vancouver to Vladivostok should grow up, as it had been agreed by all 35 Heads of State and Government of the CSCE Member States in November 1990 in the “Charter of Paris for a New Europe”. On the basis of agreed principles and first concrete measures a “common European home” should be established, in which all the States concerned should learn the same security. This goal of the post-war policy is not redeemed until today. People in Europe have to fear again.

[Please click below to continue reading] Continue reading 60 Hi-Profile German Leaders Sign Petition Condemning Merkel’s Russia Policy

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Venemous European Journeys ! , André Vltchek

 

Poster of human zoo at Military Museum in Paris
Poster of human zoo at Military Museum in Paris

It was noxious. On a poster, a young African woman is resting on the ground, her breasts are exposed, one leg bent suggestively. Right behind her, a wild-looking black girl with red hair is wagging her hips.

What I am observing is not an ancient pornographic cartoon. It is an old, official poster, which is advertising a so-called ‘human zoo’, or as it used to be called in French: ‘Jardin Zoologique D’Acclimatation’. And it is not hanging somewhere around Pigalle, but in a highly ‘respectable’ Army Museum, Musée de l’Armée, in the enormous palace – Hôtel national des Invalides – near the Military School, Napoleon’s Tomb and the headquarters of UNESCO.

On this matter, Iman Hassan wrote for ‘Africa Matters’ in 2013:

“In the 19th and 20th century, Human Zoos were public exhibits of indigenous people to demonstrate the customs and lifestyles of the ‘uncivilized’ in comparison to the ‘civilized’ western nations. The infamous ‘Jardin Zoologique d’Acclimatation’ was used as a means for the imperialist tyrants to feed their fascination with pseudo-scientific studies. In particular, surrounding racial differences amongst them and the indigenous nations they colonized. The Jardin Zoologique d’Acclimatation housed various ethnic groups who had all been subsequently taken from their homelands and relocated to Paris as species for the human exhibit. As I began to read more and more about this institution, I came across an article titled ‘Les Somalis au Jardin Zoologique d’Acclimatation’ which elaborated on the experiences of the Somalis inhabiting the exhibit in Paris. The zoo was one huge scientific exhibition to reaffirm the ignorant belief that Western culture was the pinnacle of social evolution. The zoo housed a caravan filled with twenty-six Somali children, men and women, who all belonged to various tribes, including the tribe my father belonged too…”

The Army Museum in Paris is also where posters that glorify the mass murder of African people are still proudly hanging on its walls, side by side with the ‘artworks’ celebrating the French conquest of Madagascar.

I spoke to the museum guards. I wanted to know whether there was more information available inside this museum – about the colonial onslaught and the countless genocides.

[Please click below to continue reading] Continue reading Venemous European Journeys ! , André Vltchek

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