The Saker recently posted a detailed reply, an extension of his previous posts on US and Russian military analysis, to a very good question from one of the followers of The French Saker blog.
In addition to this excellent post by The Saker, the short clip below is a complementary analysis by the Israeli analyst Yakov Kedmi.
Thank you to Iyas for the translation.
And now onto the Saker’s detailed response.
Saker’s response to a question on US/NATO vs. Russian military confrontation.
Ukraine is becoming an American/NATO platform with no viable economy, a thoroughly corrupt junta-criminal government. It has lost most characteristics of a state. We know its economy is no longer functioning. It is on economic life-support.
Q: What in history does this colonization most remind you and what does it present as a permanent platform for the projection of US hegemony right next to Russia?
In the context of US cruise missiles into Poland and 100 US tanks into Latvia, also right on the Russian border, how do you interpret these developments?
Add, Canadian military police running the police in Kiev (security apparatus hardening, in my view) and 1000 US military advisers on the ground with Ukie troops, and inside the command and control of their military, I see this as the two proxy armies facing off behind a mere mask. Do you see the ‘boots on the ground’ as sacrifices the Hegemon is prepared to make (for surely the Russians don’t care who’s inside the battle zone they must dominant or they will be defeated)?
I interpret all the latest hardening of NATO surrounding the Russian border with Eastern Europe and the buildup internally (take over of the Ukie government in fact) as ominous and imminent to a shooting war to forever scar the Russian Federation as a menace to world stability.
The militia is paper thin mask over Russian military. Everyone understands that Russia cannot allow defeat or loss of ground. The Ukies, a proxy army of cannon fodder value, a mask over NATO and US mercenary contractors and some regular “advisers”.
The opposite side does not bear any such burden of ‘loss’. If the Ukies lose and refuse to fight anymore, Russia will be demonized and the battle for more military conflict will shift to some other hot zone. Therefore, the Hegemon cannot be defeated by defeat in Ukraine.
For your answer I hope you stick just to the military threat, the military challenge, the strategic values of moves and counter-moves. I think this situation is a changed scenario, and has upped the existential threat to Russia. But without military analysis, I don’t know if what I see is what I think I see.
Military planners like to have options and contingency plans available for as many situations as possible. It just does not look good for a Chairman of the JCS to tell the President “no Sir, we never envisioned that situation”. In order to avoid that, the military will practice and plan for a lot of situation the vast majority of which will never happen.
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